Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Latest Poll Surveys/ May 10 Election

As May election is drawing near, the real contenders in the presidential election is coming clearer.  The poll surveys give Noynoy, Villar and Estrada respectively as the top most likely to be in office according to their recent surveys. Thus, we can consider the May 10, 2010 presidential election as now down to a three-way fight race.

As Noynoy is consistent to be on the lead, followed by Villar as second and Estrada in the third, but the trend in the surveys show a big dropped in Villar votes while Estrada is rising up.   Survey last March showed Estrada got only 9% but now is almost 20%. Noynoy's figures change almost just a bit. So we can say that Villar is losing his votes to Estarada. And it will not take much for Estrada to overtake Villar in the April polls. 

Since 1992,  elections were won by candidates holding the top two places of the last polls before voting. No third placer went on to win a presidential election. This make the SWS (Social Weather Stations) and Pulse Asia the most credible polling firms in the country. And with just 9% difference with each other, a 5% more drop from Villar and 5% rise for Estrada will make a big difference.


Villar is now suffering in the "PEKENG MAHIRAP" and "VILLAROYO" issues. Add more the over-spending T.V. advertisment which makes the people fear that he might  "reimburse" the money spent when he won the office. The C-5 controversy is still hunting him. And this will surely hurt him not only in the surveys ranking but in the very next poll.

If ever, as the trend indicates, Estrada overtakes Villar in second place, Tita Glo will lose her last option to have a friendly 2010 president. Hurray! In Aquino and Estrada, both are considered ‘toxic’ to her, she will be facing a hostile president. One seeks to prosecute her and the other could do even worse to her and her family. Ohboyohboyohboy.

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